Here we are — one year before the Nov. 5, 2024 election — and a recent Pew Research Center poll reveals 65 percent of Americans say they always or often feel exhausted when thinking about politics. Fifty-five percent feel angry, let alone disgusted.
Furthermore, 63 percent of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the candidates who have emerged so far. Most Americans are critical of the role of money in politics and the inter- and intra-party campaign fighting starts way too early in the election cycle.
Wouldn’t it be nice if we had the same pre-election campaign starting date as Canada (11 weeks), Mexico (90 days) or France (2 weeks)? Tradition held that people seeking any office didn’t start their campaign until the year of the election. Jimmy Carter (D-GA) broke the accepted protocol when he announced his 1976 presidential candidacy on Dec. 12, 1974.
Pundits are already making predictions about the Presidential, Senate and House outcome. Let’s preview their pre-election analysis.
The non-partisan and independent `Road to 270′ 2024 presidential election map claims the Democratic Party has already sewed up 241 electoral college votes, needing only 29 more to reach the 270 magical number. GOP is touted to have 235 votes in their pocket, 35 electoral votes short of winning the presidency.
The Dem’s can remain in the White House if states in just one of these six scenarios `vote blue’: 1) Pennsylvania and Georgia, 2) Pennsylvania and Arizona, 3) Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 4) Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, 5) Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and 6) Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada.
For the Republican Party, they only have five `vote red’ winning combinations to flip the presidency back to GOP-controlled: 1) Pennsylvania and Georgia, 2) Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin, 3) Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, 4) Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada and 5) Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.
Registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be inundated with the D and R presidential candidates’ time, money and respective disinformation, misinformation, propaganda, door-to-door persuasion,
media saturation and political campaign energy. But, voters in the other 45 states are not off-the-hook.
Currently the Democrats’ Senate caucus is composed of 51 members (48 Democrats and three independents). Forty-nine members make up the GOP’s Senate. Of the 33 Senate races in 2024, 20 Democrats, 10 Republicans and three independents are seeking re-election.
The independent and non-partisan Cook Political Report (CPR) feels there are three major “toss-up” elections: 1) Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema (independent), 2) Ohio’s Sherrod Brown (D) and 3) West Virginia’s Joe Manchin (D). Legal issues may endanger Bob Menendez (D-NJ)) returning to D.C. for his fourth term-of-office.
• Don’t be surprised by the Democrats losing control of the Senate.
House of Representatives Election
Of the 435 House elections in 2024, CPR thinks the Democrats and Republicans will each win over 200 seats, but there are 24 races classified as deadlocked.
Ten currently-controlled Democrat seats in the nail-biter category include: Colorado’s Yadira Caraveo; Michigan’s Elissa Slotkin; North Carolina’s Kathy Manning, Wiley Nickel and Jeff Jackson; New Mexico’s Gabe Vasquez; Ohio’s Emilia Sykes; Pennsylvania’s Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright; and Washington’s Marie Perez.
Fourteen Republicans are in cliff-hanger races: Arizona’s David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani; California’s John Duarte, Mike Garcia and Ken Calvert; Colorado’s Lauren Boebert; Florida’s John Rutherford; Louisiana’s Julia Letlow; New Jersey’s Thomas Kean; New York’s Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marcus Molinaro and Brandon Williams; and Oregon’s Lori Chavez-DeRemer.
Legal woes may affect George Santos’ (R-NY) congressional longevity. Also, Alabama’s new congressional map puts Barry Moore (R) and Jerry Carl’s (R) re-election in jeopardy.
• Don’t be shocked if the Republicans lose control of the House.
If we’re already exhausted, disgusted, angry and dissatisfied, imagine how we’ll feel come Nov. 5, 2024, especially if there’s a claim of a rigged election — despite multitude of evidence otherwise — that we’ll continue to hear about until 2028?
Voters may well be in need of a psycho-therapeutic program to regain control of their lives; check local listings for an anger management class nearby.
Contact Steve Corbin at Steven.B.Corbin@gmail.com