Enrollment analysis projects Newton could continue to lose students

Enrollment analysis reports show Newton Community School District has been losing students for more than 15 years and it is projected to continue losing students in the years to come; the size of the outgoing senior class just this school year is larger than the incoming kindergarten and preschool classes.

Ginna Wallace, a planner of RSP & Associates, presented the in-depth report during the Dec. 11 school board meeting. The enrollment analysis provided by RSP uses variables such as historical enrollment data, birth data, development activity, demographic trends, facility capacity and more to reach conclusions.

According to RSP’s findings, enrollment may decrease more than forecasted if live births continue to decrease, current housing stock does not improve, housing developments experience minimal growth, economy makes affording a home more challenging and demographics shift in Newton and surrounding areas.

The Newton school district’s enrollment is forecasted to decrease by about 115 students by the 2028-2029 school year, bringing the total to 2,650 students; broken down by elementary, middle school and high school, the district is projected to lose 10, 25 and 80 students in those grade levels, respectively.

From what RSP has found, there are many factors leading to the district’s student losses. Live births in Jasper County, for instance, have decreased over the past two years. The district also had a negative migration trend this year with more students migrating out of Newton, a net loss of 59 students in 2023-2024.

District enrollment decreased by 88 students from last year; RSP found the district’s pandemic cohort recovery was non-existent, most grade levels decrease as they work their way through the system and that average class sizes have all decreased over the past decade, despite community talk saying otherwise.

Observations by RSP show the largest total enrollment in the Newton school district since the 2005-2006 school year was, in fact, the 2005-2006 school year at 3,271 students. The largest K-12 class in 2023-2024 was the 12th grade with 225 students; the smallest K-12 class is the kindergarten at 177 students.

Development activity within the community also plays a factor in the school district’s enrollment. RSP found more than 1,000 housing units identified for potential development within the next 10 years. Although opportunities for residential growth exist, building activity has been decreasing the past few years.

Single-family housing has the highest propensity to have school-aged students, and RSP’s data shows those types of units are being developed at a higher rate than multi-family housing. In 2023, the district saw 12 single-family units built and five multi-family units built. RSP urged Newton to track developments.

The most active area of development is north of Berg Middle School, which has come to be known as Arbor Estates.

Residential development will continue so long as housing remains affordable and there are active projects in the community. RSP also noted as of February 2022, construction costs have increased more than 100 percent from August 2020. Supply chain challenges also impact new developments and where they occur.

RSP mentioned the return of TPI Composites could also mean more regional economic growth for the community. The company has signed a 10-year lease agreement to supply wind turbine blades to General Electric Renewable Energy and it plans to restore 700 employees to its workforce.

The next steps in addressing enrollment is the upcoming boundary meetings in January 2024, public input to be held in February 2024 and then a plan to be considered for board approval at the March 2024 meeting. RSP ended its presentation saying all of these factors are not all positive or negative.