March 28, 2024

NCSD: Positivity rates on dashboard redirect to IDPH website

Previous data removed because of conflicting numbers, absentee rates also being monitored

Statistics about the Newton school district’s 14-day average positivity rateoriginally documented online daily have been replaced by a link that redirects visitors to the Iowa Department of Public Health’s COVID-19 website. The superintendent says there was conflict in the data he retrieved from sites.

According to the IDPH website, Jasper County’s 14-day positivity rate is sitting at 11.2 percent. Superintendent Tom Messinger said he was posting data from Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, a website helmed by husband-and-wife duo Dr. Auriel A. Willette (from Iowa State University) and Sara Anne Willette.

Per Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, Jasper County’s 14-day rolling average positivity rate is 17.09 percent as of Saturday, Sept. 26. The Willettes note there is a “large disparity” between how they and the State of Iowa arrive at the 14-day average positivity. Iowa COVID-19 Tracker speculates the state is doing two things:

1) Back-dating positives to outside the 14-day window

2) Calculating daily positivity, then using those simple calculations to create an average of averages, as reported by the Telegraph Herald in Dubuque.

Iowa COVID-19 Tracker goes on to say its organizers calculate the sums of both positives and tests prior to dividing “in order to arrive at the positivity percentage.” The state finds its positivity rate using the sum total of 14-day individual positive cases divided by the sum total of 14-day total individuals tested.

Between the two sources of data, there is a discrepancy, especially when considering Iowa school districts have to meet a minimum of 14-day average positivity rate of 15 percent to operate completely online, Erin Murphy reported in the Quad City Times.

“Their numbers are different,” Messinger told Newton News. “I discovered the site that I was going to for that — while it’s one that other schools had used, too — was different than the one from the state’s department of public health. Now, we went back to the Iowa Department of Public Health’s website.”

However, the school does have control over its district-centered data, such as the number of isolated students and staff due to positive tests, those quarantined due to exposure with an individual who tested positive and those isolated awaiting results of a COVID-19.

“I went ahead and kept those numbers,” Messinger said. “But those numbers for the positivity rate, we don’t have any control over that whatsoever. So I decided I didn’t want to any longer put those numbers down because it’s up to somebody else whether or not they change.”

By the end of homecoming week, the Newton Community School District quarantined 101 students who had been in close contact with another individual who tested positive for COVID-19. As of Friday, Sept. 25, about five students were isolated from the district due to a positive test.

In addition to the 14-day average positivity rate, Messinger is looking at other concerning data that he says has much heavier impact on what the school does. On a day-by-day basis, the positivity rate’s impact at school is “probably not the most important factor” the school is monitoring, Messinger said.

Absentee rate is something Messinger is keeping an eye on. Quarantine, he said, does not count towards the absentee rate. So if someone is quarantined for being in close contact, the student is not considered ill and does not count toward that positivity rate the school has to go by if it transitioned to full remote learning.

“The second statistic we look at does not figure into closing schools down, and that is our staff absenteeism rate. We’re monitoring that pretty closely as well,” Messinger said.

Contact Christopher Braunschweig at 641-792-3121 ext. 6560 or cbraunschweig@newtondailynews.com