Democratic nominee Taylor Van De Krol faces uphill fight in SD15

Taylor Van De Krol has some big shoes to fill. It took Chaz Allen more than a half million dollars to capture his Iowa Senate seat in 2014.

Now that Allen has dropped out of the race, Jasper County Democratic chair Michelle Smith isn’t sure his replacement, former county chair Taylor Van De Krol, will be able to raise the same kind of funds as he attempts to fend off Republican Zach Nunn.

Last week, Nunn announced he was abandoning his house re-election bid to make a run at Allen’s former seat in the Senate.

“We’re going to run this like a horse race from day one,” Nunn said in a phone interview last week.

If Nunn prevails, it’ll be a serious blow to Democrats statewide, who’ve been hoping for a “blue wave” to take control of either chamber in the statehouse this fall.

To help Van De Krol get his campaign underway, the Jasper County Democratic party pitched in with a $1,000 campaign donation. The party made a similar donation earlier this year to Allen and Breckenridge, money the two turned around and donated back to the party. According to Smith, state party officials were pressuring Allen to open up a local office in Jasper County.

“The Senate was really on Chaz (Allen). They wanted that office open in Jasper County,” Smith said. “Chaz (Allen) and Wes (Breckenridge) wanted the office open, (and) they offered to split the cost of the first month’s rent.”

With Allen and Breckenridge splitting that initial cost, the temporary headquarters on Newton’s downtown square opened a month earlier than planned. The move gave Smith and the Democrats a leg up on the local Republican Party, who opened their campaign office Saturday. Nunn said he was excited to be part of the grand opening.

“Traditionally, we ran a lot of efforts from people’s kitchen tables. I think the party is really opening up,” Nunn said. “I’m excited about the energy that’s already there for our campaign, excited to bring new opportunities to our district, especially economic opportunities.”

Local Democratic supporters know Van De Krol is facing an uphill fight to get elected. Smith said she’s heard the state Republican Party has more than $1 million dollars set aside to help Nunn secure the seat. Reversing the Democrat’s “blue wave” will be a significant victory for Republicans, securing a rising star like Nunn, who brings name recognition and a burgeoning war chest to the table only makes the task easier.

Nunn didn’t need much help from the state party to win his re-election bid in 2016. He finished with a 4,000 vote margin of victory over his opponent, easily defeating longtime Democratic Party operative Joe Riding. On Saturday, Nunn vowed to launch his own grassroots campaign to pair with his impressive financing.

“We’re going to have a big grassroots effort,” Nunn said. “Our goal is knock on every door we can get to, listen to voters and drive that message back to the statehouse.”

With limited financing, Van De Krol may look to Allen for support. By law, Allen can donate a maximum of $2,000 to Van De Krol’s campaign. Once he closes down his campaign account, Allen will have a few options on the table. He can donate up to $2,000 to individual candidates, return money to donors or turn the money over to the state Democratic party, who will disburse the finds to candidates across the state.

“I’ll have his cell phone. He always has an open line,” Van De Krol said. “He was very comfortable connecting me with names and phone numbers, he’s been very supportive on that front.”

If Allen is pondering another run at public office, he also has the option of leaving the account dormant. Smith, who hasn’t talked to Allen since he announced his departure from the race, isn’t sure which way he’s leaning.

Despite keeping a low profile since the announcement, Van De Krol confirmed Allen has already reached out to him. Shortly after receiving the nomination, Allen and Van De Krol met to discuss strategy. Allen introduced him to several prominent Democratic community members in Jasper County and urged Van De Krol to fundraise aggressively.

“He’s like ‘dude, you gotta raise the money, you gotta get the money going as soon as possible,’” Van De Krol said. “That’s how you win it.”

Campaign finance reports show Allen raised more than $509,000 when he defeated Republican Crystal Bruntz to initially secure the seat in 2014. Allen’s advertising budget included running costly television and radio ads in the race, which allowed Allen to secure a 1,300 vote margin against Bruntz.

Prior to his decision to leave the race, Allen faced a much easier shot at re-election. Most pundits had labeled the seat safe, and Allen’s Republican challenger Tim Shay filed a campaign disclosure form shortly before dropping out of the race with a negative balance. In six months of campaigning, Shay failed to record a single donation, racking up more than $1,200 in expenses. Shay acknowledge the funding gap when he dropped out of the race, suggesting the party would be more successful with a better-funded candidate. While Nearmyer insisted Shay was in the race to win, he admitted Nunn was a better candidate.

“I think Zach (Nunn) can raise money easier,” Nearmyer said. “I think Zach has been through a winning state house campaign, he has a lot more knowledge to pull from in that regard. Zach is pretty well known and well liked, he has that advantage.

For local Democrats, watching a race they thought was already won potentially slip from their grasp has been frustrating. Allen’s announcement brought Smith “two weeks of hell,” she said, and Smith is still frustrated with the outcome.

“They (Allen and Breckenridge’s seats) were won unless somebody died or had a car accident at the last minute,” Smith said. “It is frustrating, I don’t think there’s a good chance to take the seat back.”

Even with Allen helping from the sidelines, Van De Krol may struggle to rack up donations at the same pace Allen did.  Without help from the state party organization, Van De Krol will have to rely on his strength as a door knocker, an asset of his “grassroots campaign” he touts in speeches. Claiming to have knocked on more than 30,000 doors, Van De Krol told voters at a canvass kickoff event Saturday morning he’d already knocked on an additional 150 doors since he was selected to take Allen’s place.

“I’ve hit the ground running, I’ve been knocking on doors,” Van De Krol said.

Republicans have their own door knockers in place. Nunn said he’s been knocking on doors daily, devoting every Monday to meeting with residents. In Jasper County, the Republican party can also lean on two paid door knockers, in addition to their volunteers. Nearmyer boasted Jasper County is the only organization in the state to employ professional door knockers. In a phone interview last week, Nearmyer confirmed the door knockers were both Republican voters.

“It would probably be a lot harder to get Democrats to do that for us. We’d probably have to pay a lot more,” Nearmyer said.

While having paid staff to knock on doors might be a unique asset, Smith said she’s unimpressed.

“I feel sad they have to resort to paying someone,” Smith said. “Do you not have a base that’s strong enough to support you?”

Editor’s note: Sen. Chaz Allen did not respond to multiple interview requests for this story.

Contact David Dolmage at 641-792-3121 ext. 6532 or ddolmage@newtondailynews.com