Texas and Iowa could fight it out for weeks in BCS
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (MCT) — Texas and Iowa don’t have to play for the national championship to compete against each other.
The Horns and Hawks have a star-wars thing going on now.
Heading into the weekend, Texas holds the No. 3 spot in the Bowl Championship Series standings, Iowa is No. 4, and usually anything outside the top two is no-man’s land.
But in this case, third place isn’t such a terrible spot. Because the first and second teams, Florida and Alabama, share a conference banner, one is guaranteed a loss by BCS pick-em day.
On Halloween Eve, it’s folly to believe more than two or three teams will run the table because:
A. Only once have three teams from BCS-guarantee conferences (the top six, you know who they are) finished the regular-season perfectly, and
B. Plenty of land mines await top contenders starting with the Longhorns’ spooky trip Saturday to Oklahoma State.
But when considering the BCS, it’s wise to imagine worst-case scenarios because that’s how the BCS rolls. So let’s roll out this crystal-ball reading.
Texas plasters the North champion in the Big 12 title game to stand 13-0. Enough magic dust is left in Iowa’s bag to finish a remarkable 12-0. The SEC champion remains undefeated and is No. 1 after the league championship game with the loser dropping to at least fourth.
Who jumps to No. 2 and gets the big prize?
Don’t know, but in this three-undefeated scenario — and we’re not even considering the possibility of an undefeated Cincinnati here — the BCS once again will get pounded against the ropes.
Here’s why. Texas is the clear choice in the two human polls, ranking third in both to the Hawkeyes’ eighth. But Iowa is way ahead of the Longhorns in the computer rankings, gaining the top spot on five of the six lists to stand an easy overall No. 1 in average rating. Texas, as low as No. 14 in one of the polls, is fifth overall by the machines.
What does this mean? People, with their bias, impressions and notions have to this point judged Texas to be better than Iowa.
Computers, with the cold facts and analysis and programmed not to consider the logo on the helmet or who got it in the shorts last year or whose season makes for a nicer story or style points, declare the Hawkeyes superior.
Mack Brown and Kirk Ferentz have more than enough on their desks to consider a what-if memo.
“No. 1, we need to win the Big 12 South,” Brown said. “We’re not looking at the end.”
Ferentz had fun with the Hawkeyes’ computer love.
“Computers have not seen us play,” he said. “If they had eyes and could see us play they would say, ‘Are you kidding me?’ “
Both are putting together compelling seasons. The Longhorns are getting it done with one of the nation’s best defenses, little from the running game and not as much statistically from quarterback Colt McCoy as last year. But only one of their seven victories has been decided by single digits.
Only amazing describes Iowa, with two of its victories decided by more than 10 points. From the two blocked field goals to survive Northern Iowa in the opener to the final play touchdown that defeated Michigan State last weekend, it’s been a charmed year, not unlike the miracle finishes of Ohio State in the Buckeyes’ 2002 national championship season.
Iowa must now carry on without rushing leader Adam Robinson, hobbled by a high ankle sprain. Given the Hawkeyes’ 2009 fortune this may be only a speed bump and not a threat to derail a finishing flurry of three home games starting Saturday with Indiana and what may be an everything-on-line trip to Ohio State on Nov. 14.
Plenty can happen over the next few weeks. A Texas victory at Stillwater surely will improve the Longhorns in the computers. An Iowa triumph in Columbus could jump the Hawks a few notches in the polls.
But if they’re among the undefeated in the end, along with the SEC champion, we’ll be breaking them down in tale-of-the-tape fashion. Who played in the tougher conference? Whose non-conference schedule was better? Which coach has campaigned better?
The only certainty in this hypothetical conflict between voters and computers is the team not playing for the national championship will blame system failure, and the anti-BCS sentiment will grow.
